Commentary: Quantum computing is a major front in US-China tech war

MELBOURNE: In the high-stakes race to master potentially game-changing technologies, one field receives substantially less attention: Quantum computing.

This emerging field is a major front in the US-China tech war, up there with artificial intelligence and semiconductors. Its development is a closely guarded secret in both countries, and has been a key feature of the tech restrictions the United States government has attempted to place on China.

Quantum computing is difficult to explain to a lay audience, which contributes to its underreporting in the mainstream media.

At its core, quantum computing enables the rapid solving of extremely complex mathematical problems at a tremendously fast rate. For example, Google recently claimed that their prototype quantum computer Willow can solve a computation in five minutes that would take a conventional supercomputer ten septillion years.

The potential impact of quantum computing on mathematics and science is profound. However, its promise remains theoretical and confined to complex areas that are difficult for non-experts to understand.

In an effort to bridge this gap, the United Nations has declared 2025 as the International Year of Quantum Science and Technology in an attempt to “raise public awareness of the importance and impact of quantum science and applications on all aspects of life”. While this is a noble goal, making the benefits of quantum technology accessible to the general public remains a challenge.

Nonetheless, a few applications have emerged that warrant attention.

APPLICATIONS IN ENCRYPTION, COMMUNICATIONS

One of the most significant, and highly valuable to world powers, is its potential to break encryption.

Currently, it would take around 16 million years for a supercomputer to break a standard encrypted file. Quantum computers, however, could theoretically break encryption in a matter of hours or days.

This prospect has prompted the US government to develop quantum-resistant encryption standards to stay ahead of potential threats. In this area, the United States still holds an advantage as private companies such as IBM and Google have been developing highly advanced quantum computers, including Google’s Willow and the IBM Q System One and Two.

However, China is rapidly gaining ground. Last December, the Chinese Academy of Sciences announced the launch of the Tianyan-504, a supercomputer that surpasses the 500-qubit threshold, a key measure of quantum processing capability.

Beyond encryption, another critical area where quantum technology is making strides is quantum communication – a field in which China is taking the lead. Quantum communication enables ultra-secure, extremely fast communication that cannot be intercepted.

In 2016, China launched the first quantum satellite, which enables secure quantum communication over thousands of kilometres. A second satellite followed in 2022, and a third is planned for 2026. In December 2023, China and Russia tested quantum communication via satellite.

DIFFERENT APPROACHES TO QUANTUM TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH

China and the United States approach quantum technology research in different ways.

China focuses on state-led development, with the bulk of research conducted in state-controlled labs such as the Chinese Academy of Sciences or the University of Science and Technology of China. By contrast, the United States primarily leaves the development to private companies such as Google, IBM, and Microsoft, as well as startups.

There are benefits and risks to both approaches. China’s method can help in long-term planning, especially when developing and securing supply chains, but may stifle competition and innovation. The US method fosters competition and diversity of research avenues, but is subject to the whims of investors and shareholders, who will want to see a return on their investment.

A surprising player in the quantum race is Australia. In 2024, the US startup PsiQuantum began construction of a quantum computer in Brisbane, backed by more than A$1 billion (US$640 million) in funding, mostly from the Queensland and federal governments. PsiQuantum claims that this computer will be the largest of its kind and the first “useful” quantum computer.

However, it will not possess the ability to break encryption or undertake quantum communication. PsiQuantum’s co-founder, Dr Pete Shadbolt, claims that when completed the computer will be used for computational chemistry, meaning it will help analyse and model chemicals on an atomic level, in turn assisting in drug discovery and materials science.

Australia’s quantum ambitions extend beyond this single project. The National Quantum Strategy, launched in May 2023, aims to have Australia “recognised as a leader of the global quantum industry” by 2030. The Brisbane quantum computer is just one of many government-backed investments aimed at achieving this goal.

PLACING BIG BETS

Quantum technology is a field that inspires both excitement and unease.

It is a key battleground in the race for tech supremacy, offering enormous potential benefits while posing new security risks. It exists in the realm of emerging technologies, perpetually on the cusp of potential breakthrough.

Australia, China, the United States and others are placing big bets on what quantum technology can achieve. The International Year of Quantum Science and Technology serves as a timely moment to take stock of its implications for global power and security.

Evan Freidin is an international relations analyst. This commentary first appeared on the Lowy Institute's blog, Interpreter.